There is, I think, a lot of wishful thinking here, but interesting speculation nonetheless.
The benefits of Russia’s coming disintegration
The author believes that the Russian Federation will collapse into dozens of independent states, Russia itself will become a minor rump state, and the world will be a happier, safer, more western place, with China somehow also reduced in power.
Ummm. Nice dream, I suppose, but wounded animals are bad enough; wounded *psychotic* animals with nukes are kind of a special sort of problem.
Also: the photo in the article shows part of a painting that appears to depict Satan setting Putin on fire. It’s not described in the article, but this is a mural painted at the St. Josaphat Church in Chervonograd city, Ukraine in 2017. This is well to the west of Ukraine, so it’s probably still standing. Looks a lot like a Jon McNaughton painting.
10 responses to “Russia’s Rupture”
It sounds nice, but even assuming Russia collapses without nukes flying, the next problem is that Communist China will pick up most of the useful pieces. I think I’d rather have Siberia’s resources wasted in oligarchs’ bank accounts, rather than used to build more PLAAN frigates and destroyers and carriers (oh my!).
Yeah, that always seems to be forgotten when discussing the collapse of empires into smaller states: nearby empires might see it as an opportunity to expand. Whether China could militarily take The Imperial Majestic People’s State Of Siberia is another question… it could well turn into Ukraine Part 2 for the Chinese. But they might be able to take them diplomatically, simply buy ’em out.
We’re only about halfway through January 2023, and that’s already the best piece of agitprop I’ve read this year! I would say the collapse of the EU is more inevitable than the collapse of the Russian Federation.
Why not both?
Also wishful thinking.
The Internationalists are fully in control despite a few setbacks and have successfully nutered the Eurosceptic. The leftist way of thinking has been instilled too deeply (here too) The only thing I think that could really collapse the EU is a serious spat between Paris and Berlin possibly brought on by economic issues. That doesn’t mean a few members cant be peeled off but this isn’t going to happen with the Russian boogie-man lurking next door.
Although a EU crisis of some flavor might just be an unintended consequence of a Russian breakup the author did no consider.
The author takes a very insular almost provincial western viewpoint in its assumptions regarding the perceived reasons for the proposed collapse of the Russian state and its thoughts on a post “Imperial Russian” future go right past naïve to wishful thinking.
This passage in particular makes me shake my head and wonder how the author hasn’t been scammed out of their house by Nigerians.
“Although nuclear weapons will remain a potential threat, Russia’s leaders won’t commit national suicide by launching them against the West. Instead, they will try to salvage their political futures and economic fortunes — as did the Soviet elite. And even if some emerging states acquire such weapons, they won’t have any reason to deploy them while seeking international recognition and economic assistance. Post-Russian states are instead likely to pursue nuclear disarmament — much like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan after the Soviet demise.”
This whole line of thinking is subjective, trusting that others will make their decisions based on the author’s own imperatives and literally betting the world on their being correct. Russia or whomever will have their own sets of goals and imperatives that have nothing to do with trade or western concepts of civil rights.
As Scott said an animal is most dangerous when its wounded, and a breakup would probably be seen as “national suicide” all by itself. It would certainly be seen as a final western victory which few in Russia would handle gracefully. In this case the calculation to push the button and see what happens might seem to be the best alternative. It would certainly have the benefit as one last middle finger to the forces the see as laying them low. This would be their equivalent of our “better dead than red” attitude of days past.
How about the United States? We’re falling apart too.
Ah, yes, but our provinces and minor republics will be better than the Russkis!
“How about the United States? We’re falling apart, too.”
Kind of sort of but probably not.
We have some of the ingredients for a breakup, but not enough, I think.
Too much relies on Federal dollars in one way or another for there to be serious talk of killing the golden goose. Add some real economic turmoil and maybe… If you have no Fed, there is no VA, Welfare or the ridiculous number of grants to states, cities and “non-profits” and no federal jobs or contracts.
Some states have the economies to do halfway decent on their own if they tried.
Texas, California (I said IF they tried) Probably New England as a region and a few others, but by and large most would have serious issues without the union. How do you get Kansas wheat to market if one of the river states say you can’t ship through here or just fails to maintain the locks?
I think honestly what you would get is a heaping helping of French Revolution as increasingly radical groups fight over the apparatus of the Federal Government and lash out at real and imagined enemies before eventually reestablishing or at least trying to reestablish something kind of like what worked before in name if not in substance.
The whole world is falling apart. We’re not immune or isolated from the rest of the world.