“Strategic Partnership”

5 responses to ““Strategic Partnership””

1. 

   Petrock

   March 29, 2023

   I agree, any partnership is one of convenience and will last only so long as neither of them see an advantage in getting stabby. My prediction is that China will be the first one to do so, as they seem to have designs on the Russian Far East.

   In their place, this makes sense and I, in their place, I would try to induce India to sign on as well. They might like that bit of dirt they have been squabbling over with China. With that as a present and perhaps a bit of a Chinese pullback from Pakistan, India might go for it, although my prediction is they (India) will try to straddle the fence as usual.

   They have nothing to gain from the Western Internationalists now dominating the US/UK/EU/UN (that’s another story)

2. 

   Herp McDerp

   March 30, 2023

   China is playing “Let’s you and him fight” regarding Russia and Ukraine. Then after Russia has weakened its military even further, China will feel free to do whatever it wants to regain the territories it lost in 1860.

3. 

   Madoc

   March 30, 2023

   Zeihan has a pretty firm grasp of international situations. Especially when it comes to actions based on fading demographics.

   His analysis of the meaning of Putin’s declaring that “strategic relationship” with China when compared to Russia’s history in using that term previously, is pretty compelling.

   The Russians and the Chinese have NO love lost between the two.

   In this modern age, the PRC doesn’t have to make and land grabs against the Russians. Doing so would only piss off the Russians and they become a real pain to deal with when pissed off and defending their sacred homeland of Rodina. Better by far, then, to simply buy it out from under the Russians. That way it motivates the Russians to keep things in working order, more or less, and the PRC doesn’t have to expend the effort policing those resources.

   I disagree with Zeihan when it comes to Ukraine. I don’t think the Russians are gonna win this one. They’ve lost too much to do so and the Ukraines are only getting stronger as time passes. Yeah, the Russians are throwing more people at the problem but the Ukraines, as evidenced by their defense of Bakhmut over the winter, have shown they can handle that.

   As Russia bleeds itself out in Ukraine I can more readily see places like India and even Turkey choosing not to bet on the losing horse and actively decreasing their trade with Russia. We’re most likely to see the Russian economy truly implode this year thanks to the sanctions. In particular, thanks to the oil and gas sanctions.

   The continued stalemate in Ukraine combined with the crashing economy at home is what I think will finally do Putin in. And no amount of “strategic partnership” with China is gonna change that.

   1. 

      Petrock

      March 30, 2023

      I’m not so sure, cracks are showing in European resolve, and even we are getting disgruntled over the cost. If the Ukrainians’ can’t hang on to or quickly retake Bakhmut, then I think a “peace faction” will emerge, and you’ll see a “compromise” by the middle of Summer.

      Conversely, if Ukraine can actually give the Russians another good kick in the giblets, then Madoc’s scenario becomes likely.

      If losing, I still see Putin pulling the trigger on Nukes, at least at the tactical level. For them, this is existential and all of Putin’s plausible replacements are of the same mind.

4. 

   Jeff Wright

   April 3, 2023

   China knows how to fail forward
   https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/04/majority-of-chinas-corruption-is-a-commission-system-for-business-development.html